Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maya Joint
To win
+$25.00
Total payout
$45.00
Joint prob
69.3%
Combined odds
2.25
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+55.9%
Expected value: +$11.18 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.18 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.3% · fair market: 43.2% · edge: +60.4%
Model probabilities Yuliia Starodubtseva 30.7% · Maya Joint 69.3% Why Maya Joint is favoured Maya Joint's Elo (1545) is +74 over Yuliia Starodubtseva (1471); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 69.3% vs market 43.2% (edge +60.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).