Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.5% · fair market: 67.1% · edge: -1.0%
Model probabilities Marie Bouzkova 66.5% · Kimberly Birrell 33.5% Why Marie Bouzkova is favoured Marie Bouzkova's Elo (1655) is +98 over Kimberly Birrell (1557); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 73.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.