Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.3% · fair market: 54.6% · edge: -2.4%
Model probabilities Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 53.3% · Valentin Royer 46.7% Why Adolfo Daniel Vallejo is favoured Adolfo Daniel Vallejo's Elo (1525) is +14 over Valentin Royer (1511); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 54.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.