Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Botic van de Zandschulp
To win
+$18.60
Total payout
$38.60
Joint prob
57.3%
Combined odds
1.93
Fair odds
1.75
Edge
+10.5%
Expected value: +$2.10 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.10 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.3% · fair market: 50.4% · edge: +13.6%
Model probabilities Botic van de Zandschulp 57.3% · Daniel Merida Aguilar 42.7% Why Botic van de Zandschulp is favoured Botic van de Zandschulp's Elo (1635) is +32 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1603); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 59.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 57.3% vs market 50.4% (edge +13.6%, suggested Kelly +11.3% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.