Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Liudmila Samsonova
To win
+$11.40
Total payout
$31.40
Joint prob
64.3%
Combined odds
1.57
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+1.0%
Expected value: +$0.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.3% · fair market: 61.9% · edge: +3.9%
Model probabilities Janice Tjen 35.7% · Liudmila Samsonova 64.3% +EV vs market away: model 64.3% vs market 61.9% (edge +3.9%, suggested Kelly +1.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.