Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dane Sweeny
To win
+$31.20
Total payout
$51.20
Joint prob
58.3%
Combined odds
2.56
Fair odds
1.72
Edge
+49.2%
Expected value: +$9.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.3% · fair market: 37.4% · edge: +55.8%
Model probabilities Christopher O'Connell 41.7% · Dane Sweeny 58.3% Calibration Raw model: 58.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 58.3% vs market 37.4% (edge +55.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).