Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jiri Lehecka
To win
+$14.40
Total payout
$34.40
Joint prob
70.3%
Combined odds
1.72
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+21.0%
Expected value: +$4.19 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.3% · fair market: 56.6% · edge: +24.3%
Model probabilities Alex Michelsen 29.7% · Jiri Lehecka 70.3% Why Jiri Lehecka is favoured Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1758) is +106 over Alex Michelsen (1652); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.3% vs market 56.6% (edge +24.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.