Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Oleksandra Oliynykova
To win
+$37.60
Total payout
$57.60
Joint prob
68.9%
Combined odds
2.88
Fair odds
1.45
Edge
+98.5%
Expected value: +$19.71 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$19.71 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.9% · fair market: 33.8% · edge: +104.0%
Model probabilities Elvina Kalieva 31.1% · Oleksandra Oliynykova 68.9% Calibration Raw model: 33.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 31.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 68.9% vs market 33.8% (edge +104.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.