Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kayla Cross
To win
+$58.40
Total payout
$78.40
Joint prob
32.9%
Combined odds
3.92
Fair odds
3.04
Edge
+28.8%
Expected value: +$5.76 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.76 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.9% · fair market: 24.6% · edge: +33.5%
Model probabilities Ann Li 67.1% · Kayla Cross 32.9% Why Ann Li is favoured Ann Li's Elo (1552) is +64 over Kayla Cross (1488); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 32.9% vs market 24.6% (edge +33.5%, suggested Kelly +9.9% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.