Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
To win
+$21.40
Total payout
$41.40
Joint prob
56.5%
Combined odds
2.07
Fair odds
1.77
Edge
+17.0%
Expected value: +$3.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.5% · fair market: 46.4% · edge: +21.8%
Model probabilities Sho Shimabukuro 43.5% · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 56.5% Why Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is favoured Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's Elo (1479) is +22 over Sho Shimabukuro (1457); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 56.5% vs market 46.4% (edge +21.8%, suggested Kelly +15.9% of bankroll).