Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francesco Maestrelli
To win
+$58.20
Total payout
$78.20
Joint prob
26.8%
Combined odds
3.91
Fair odds
3.73
Edge
+4.9%
Expected value: +$0.98 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.98 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 26.8% · fair market: 24.5% · edge: +9.4%
Model probabilities Francesco Maestrelli 26.8% · Bu Yunchaokete 73.2% Why Bu Yunchaokete is favoured Bu Yunchaokete's Elo (1587) is +112 over Francesco Maestrelli (1475); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 24.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 26.8% vs market 24.5% (edge +9.4%, suggested Kelly +1.7% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.