Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Hubert Hurkacz
To win
+$13.80
Total payout
$33.80
Joint prob
60.6%
Combined odds
1.69
Fair odds
1.65
Edge
+2.4%
Expected value: +$0.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.49 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.6% · fair market: 57.4% · edge: +5.6%
Model probabilities Hubert Hurkacz 60.6% · Arthur Gea 39.4% Why Hubert Hurkacz is favoured Hubert Hurkacz's Elo (1595) is +61 over Arthur Gea (1534); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 66.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 60.6% vs market 57.4% (edge +5.6%, suggested Kelly +3.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.