Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Vit Kopriva
To win
+$20.00
Total payout
$40.00
Joint prob
51.4%
Combined odds
2.00
Fair odds
1.94
Edge
+2.9%
Expected value: +$0.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.57 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 51.4% · fair market: 48.6% · edge: +5.8%
Alexis Galarneau received a main-draw wildcard for the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal, marking his seventh appearance at the event. He has shown strong performances recently on the Challenger Tour, reaching eight quarterfinals or better, including two runner-up finishes this year.
Lineup: Alexis Galarneau is a wildcard entry in the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open. His match, originally scheduled for Sunday, August 2, was postponed to Monday, August 3, due to rain.
Vit Kopriva is currently experiencing a difficult period on tour, marked by a four-match losing streak and a failure to win a main-draw match in four of his last five tournaments. This comes after a strong first half of the season, which included a fourth-round appearance in Madrid and a semifinal run in Rio de Janeiro.
Lineup: Vit Kopriva is in the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open. His match, originally scheduled for Sunday, August 2, was postponed to Monday, August 3, due to rain.
“Alexis Galarneau enters ATP Canadian Open with strong recent form and home advantage, while Vit Kopriva faces challenges after a four-match losing streak.”
Model probabilities Alexis Galarneau 48.6% · Vit Kopriva 51.4% Why Vit Kopriva is favoured Vit Kopriva's Elo (1507) is +17 over Alexis Galarneau (1490); medium confidence. +EV vs market away: model 51.4% vs market 48.6% (edge +5.8%, suggested Kelly +2.9% of bankroll). News context Alexis Galarneau enters ATP Canadian Open with strong recent form and home advantage, while Vit Kopriva faces challenges after a four-match losing streak. Alexis Galarneau: Alexis Galarneau received a main-draw wildcard for the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal, marking his seventh appearance at the event. He has shown strong performances recently on the Challenger Tour, reaching eight quarterfinals or better, including two runner-up finishes this year. Vit Kopriva: Vit Kopriva is currently experiencing a difficult period on tour, marked by a four-match losing streak and a failure to win a main-draw match in four of his last five tournaments. This comes after a strong first half of the season, which included a fourth-round appearance in Madrid and a semifinal run in Rio de Janeiro. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.