Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sun Xinran
To win
+$234.60
Total payout
$254.60
Joint prob
10.9%
Combined odds
12.73
Fair odds
9.19
Edge
+38.5%
Expected value: +$7.70 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.70 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 10.9% · fair market: 7.6% · edge: +42.8%
Model probabilities Coco Gauff 89.1% · Sun Xinran 10.9% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1917) is +379 over Sun Xinran (1538); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 93.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 89.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 10.9% vs market 7.6% (edge +42.8%, suggested Kelly +3.3% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.