Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Naomi Osaka
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
73.1%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+17.7%
Expected value: +$3.55 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.55 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.1% · fair market: 60.4% · edge: +21.0%
Model probabilities Naomi Osaka 73.1% · Alexandra Eala 26.9% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1746) is +96 over Alexandra Eala (1650); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 73.1% vs market 60.4% (edge +21.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).