Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maddison Inglis
To win
+$54.40
Total payout
$74.40
Joint prob
29.4%
Combined odds
3.72
Fair odds
3.40
Edge
+9.5%
Expected value: +$1.90 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.90 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 29.4% · fair market: 26.0% · edge: +13.0%
Model probabilities Sara Bejlek 70.6% · Maddison Inglis 29.4% Why Sara Bejlek is favoured Sara Bejlek's Elo (1606) is +132 over Maddison Inglis (1475); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 77.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 70.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 29.4% vs market 26.0% (edge +13.0%, suggested Kelly +3.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.