Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marina Bassols Ribera
To win
+$48.60
Total payout
$68.60
Joint prob
29.7%
Combined odds
3.43
Fair odds
3.37
Edge
+1.7%
Expected value: +$0.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 29.7% · fair market: 28.2% · edge: +5.0%
Model probabilities Marina Bassols Ribera 29.7% · Kamilla Rakhimova 70.3% Why Kamilla Rakhimova is favoured Kamilla Rakhimova's Elo (1480) is +92 over Marina Bassols Ribera (1388); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 27.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 29.7% vs market 28.2% (edge +5.0%, suggested Kelly +0.7% of bankroll).