Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex Michelsen
To win
+$30.80
Total payout
$50.80
Joint prob
53.0%
Combined odds
2.54
Fair odds
1.89
Edge
+34.7%
Expected value: +$6.94 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.94 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.0% · fair market: 38.2% · edge: +38.8%
Model probabilities Taylor Fritz 47.0% · Alex Michelsen 53.0% Why Alex Michelsen is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1739) is +71 over Alex Michelsen (1668); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 68.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.0% vs market 38.2% (edge +38.8%, suggested Kelly +22.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.