Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Learner Tien
To win
+$7.00
Total payout
$27.00
Joint prob
79.0%
Combined odds
1.35
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+6.7%
Expected value: +$1.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.0% · fair market: 71.7% · edge: +10.2%
Model probabilities Learner Tien 79.0% · Gael Monfils 21.0% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1731) is +143 over Gael Monfils (1589); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 79.0% vs market 71.7% (edge +10.2%, suggested Kelly +19.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.