Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$7.60
Total payout
$27.60
Joint prob
77.4%
Combined odds
1.38
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+6.8%
Expected value: +$1.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.4% · fair market: 70.8% · edge: +9.2%
Model probabilities Ekaterina Alexandrova 22.6% · Elina Svitolina 77.4% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1859) is +189 over Ekaterina Alexandrova (1670); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 16.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 22.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 77.4% vs market 70.8% (edge +9.2%, suggested Kelly +17.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.