Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$8.60
Total payout
$28.60
Joint prob
82.8%
Combined odds
1.43
Fair odds
1.21
Edge
+18.4%
Expected value: +$3.68 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.68 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 82.8% · fair market: 68.3% · edge: +21.2%
Model probabilities Elina Svitolina 82.8% · Anastasia Potapova 17.2% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1836) is +183 over Anastasia Potapova (1652); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 82.8% vs market 68.3% (edge +21.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.