Model probabilities Peyton Stearns 51.9% · Harriet Dart 48.1% Why Peyton Stearns is favoured Peyton Stearns's Elo (1562) is +125 over Harriet Dart (1437); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 77.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.