Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Learner Tien
To win
+$12.40
Total payout
$32.40
Joint prob
75.4%
Combined odds
1.62
Fair odds
1.33
Edge
+22.2%
Expected value: +$4.44 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.44 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 75.4% · fair market: 60.0% · edge: +25.7%
Model probabilities Learner Tien 75.4% · Hubert Hurkacz 24.6% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1755) is +184 over Hubert Hurkacz (1571); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 75.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 75.4% vs market 60.0% (edge +25.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).