Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alejandro Tabilo
To win
+$14.00
Total payout
$34.00
Joint prob
59.1%
Combined odds
1.70
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
+0.5%
Expected value: +$0.10 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.10 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.1% · fair market: 57.3% · edge: +3.2%
Model probabilities Alexei Popyrin 40.9% · Alejandro Tabilo 59.1% Why Alejandro Tabilo is favoured Alejandro Tabilo's Elo (1551) is +22 over Alexei Popyrin (1529); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 43.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.1% vs market 57.3% (edge +3.2%, suggested Kelly +0.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.