Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 9.9% · fair market: 9.7% · edge: +1.2%
Model probabilities Donna Vekic 9.9% · Iga Swiatek 90.1% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1918) is +387 over Donna Vekic (1531); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 6.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 9.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.