Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lois Boisson
To win
+$42.80
Total payout
$62.80
Joint prob
53.9%
Combined odds
3.14
Fair odds
1.86
Edge
+69.2%
Expected value: +$13.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.9% · fair market: 30.8% · edge: +74.8%
Model probabilities Ashlyn Krueger 46.1% · Lois Boisson 53.9% Calibration Raw model: 67.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.9% vs market 30.8% (edge +74.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.