Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Viktorija Golubic
To win
+$119.60
Total payout
$139.60
Joint prob
22.4%
Combined odds
6.98
Fair odds
4.46
Edge
+56.4%
Expected value: +$11.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 22.4% · fair market: 13.9% · edge: +60.8%
Model probabilities Linda Noskova 77.6% · Viktorija Golubic 22.4% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1782) is +211 over Viktorija Golubic (1571); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 84.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 77.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 22.4% vs market 13.9% (edge +60.8%, suggested Kelly +9.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.