Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.5% · fair market: 39.7% · edge: -2.8%
Model probabilities Juan Manuel Cerundolo 38.5% · Hamad Medjedovic 61.5% Why Hamad Medjedovic is favoured Hamad Medjedovic's Elo (1553) is +40 over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1513); high confidence. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.