Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Taylor Townsend
To win
+$24.00
Total payout
$44.00
Joint prob
55.4%
Combined odds
2.20
Fair odds
1.80
Edge
+21.9%
Expected value: +$4.38 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.38 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.4% · fair market: 43.9% · edge: +26.3%
Marie Bouzkova, currently ranked No. 24, has had an excellent year, securing two titles in Bogota and Nottingham. She received a first-round bye at the WTA Canadian Open.
Lineup: Expected to start in the second round of the WTA Canadian Open after receiving a first-round bye.
Taylor Townsend, currently ranked No. 105, recently secured a hard-fought straight-sets victory over world No. 67 Tereza Valentova in the first round of the WTA Canadian Open. This win is considered a critical confidence builder as she looks to improve her singles form.
Lineup: Expected to start in the second round of the WTA Canadian Open after defeating Tereza Valentova in the first round.
“Marie Bouzkova enters the WTA Canadian Open second round with strong season form, while Taylor Townsend looks to build on a recent first-round upset victory.”
Model probabilities Marie Bouzkova 44.6% · Taylor Townsend 55.4% Why Taylor Townsend is favoured Taylor Townsend's Elo (1662) is +22 over Marie Bouzkova (1640); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 55.4% vs market 43.9% (edge +26.3%, suggested Kelly +18.3% of bankroll). News context Marie Bouzkova enters the WTA Canadian Open second round with strong season form, while Taylor Townsend looks to build on a recent first-round upset victory. Marie Bouzkova: Marie Bouzkova, currently ranked No. 24, has had an excellent year, securing two titles in Bogota and Nottingham. She received a first-round bye at the WTA Canadian Open. Taylor Townsend: Taylor Townsend, currently ranked No. 105, recently secured a hard-fought straight-sets victory over world No. 67 Tereza Valentova in the first round of the WTA Canadian Open. This win is considered a critical confidence builder as she looks to improve her singles form.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.