Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jakub Mensik
To win
+$6.40
Total payout
$26.40
Joint prob
79.7%
Combined odds
1.32
Fair odds
1.25
Edge
+5.2%
Expected value: +$1.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.04 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.7% · fair market: 73.6% · edge: +8.3%
Model probabilities Miomir Kecmanovic 20.3% · Jakub Mensik 79.7% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1741) is +208 over Miomir Kecmanovic (1533); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 79.7% vs market 73.6% (edge +8.3%, suggested Kelly +16.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.