Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yulia Putintseva
To win
+$47.00
Total payout
$67.00
Joint prob
31.2%
Combined odds
3.35
Fair odds
3.21
Edge
+4.5%
Expected value: +$0.90 on a $20 stake.
Liudmila Samsonova withdrew from the National Bank Open on August 9, 2026, citing a lingering injury, although she did play a three-set match and lost on the same day at the tournament. This suggests a potential fitness concern that could impact her performance in the WTA Cincinnati Open.
Liudmila Samsonova withdrew from the National Bank Open on August 9, 2026, due to a lingering injury, despite playing a three-set match on the same day.
Expected value: +$0.90 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 31.2% · fair market: 29.0% · edge: +7.5%
Model probabilities Yulia Putintseva 31.2% · Liudmila Samsonova 68.8% Why Liudmila Samsonova is favoured Liudmila Samsonova's Elo (1600) is +58 over Yulia Putintseva (1542); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 34.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 31.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 31.2% vs market 29.0% (edge +7.5%, suggested Kelly +1.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.