Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elena Rybakina
To win
+$3.60
Total payout
$23.60
Joint prob
86.0%
Combined odds
1.18
Fair odds
1.16
Edge
+1.5%
Expected value: +$0.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 86.0% · fair market: 82.6% · edge: +4.1%
Model probabilities Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 14.0% · Elena Rybakina 86.0% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1979) is +462 over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (1517); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 4.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 14.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 86.0% vs market 82.6% (edge +4.1%, suggested Kelly +8.2% of bankroll).