Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anhelina Kalinina
To win
+$31.60
Total payout
$51.60
Joint prob
50.9%
Combined odds
2.58
Fair odds
1.96
Edge
+31.4%
Expected value: +$6.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.9% · fair market: 37.5% · edge: +35.7%
Model probabilities Emma Navarro 49.1% · Anhelina Kalinina 50.9% Why Anhelina Kalinina is favoured Emma Navarro's Elo (1574) is +92 over Anhelina Kalinina (1482); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 50.9% vs market 37.5% (edge +35.7%, suggested Kelly +19.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.