Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Iga Swiatek
To win
+$0.60
Total payout
$20.60
Joint prob
92.1%
Combined odds
1.03
Fair odds
1.09
Edge
-5.1%
Expected value: $-1.02 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-1.02 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 92.1% · fair market: 83.2% · edge: +10.7%
Model probabilities Xinyu Gao 7.9% · Iga Swiatek 92.1% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1916) is +444 over Xinyu Gao (1472); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 4.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 7.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 92.1% vs market 83.2% (edge +10.7%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.