Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Casper Ruud
To win
+$9.40
Total payout
$29.40
Joint prob
73.8%
Combined odds
1.47
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+8.5%
Expected value: +$1.71 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.71 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.8% · fair market: 66.1% · edge: +11.8%
Model probabilities Luciano Darderi 26.2% · Casper Ruud 73.8% Why Casper Ruud is favoured Casper Ruud's Elo (1653) is +122 over Luciano Darderi (1531); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 23.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.8% vs market 66.1% (edge +11.8%, suggested Kelly +18.1% of bankroll).