Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Learner Tien
To win
+$11.40
Total payout
$31.40
Joint prob
57.1%
Combined odds
1.57
Fair odds
1.75
Edge
-10.3%
Expected value: $-2.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-2.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.1% · fair market: 53.6% · edge: +6.7%
Model probabilities Jakub Mensik 42.9% · Learner Tien 57.1% Why Learner Tien is favoured Elo essentially level (1746 vs 1755) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 47.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 57.1% vs market 53.6% (edge +6.7%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.