Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Hubert Hurkacz
To win
+$27.20
Total payout
$47.20
Joint prob
48.5%
Combined odds
2.36
Fair odds
2.06
Edge
+14.5%
Expected value: +$2.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.89 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.5% · fair market: 41.4% · edge: +17.0%
Model probabilities Hubert Hurkacz 48.5% · Karen Khachanov 51.5% Why Karen Khachanov is favoured Elo essentially level (1608 vs 1603) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 51.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 48.5% vs market 41.4% (edge +17.0%, suggested Kelly +10.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.