Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Benjamin Bonzi
To win
+$9.00
Total payout
$29.00
Joint prob
71.0%
Combined odds
1.45
Fair odds
1.41
Edge
+2.9%
Expected value: +$0.59 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.59 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.0% · fair market: 66.3% · edge: +7.1%
Model probabilities Dusan Lajovic 29.0% · Benjamin Bonzi 71.0% Why Benjamin Bonzi is favoured Benjamin Bonzi's Elo (1538) is +82 over Dusan Lajovic (1455); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 71.0% vs market 66.3% (edge +7.1%, suggested Kelly +6.5% of bankroll).