Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · James Duckworth
To win
+$19.00
Total payout
$39.00
Joint prob
53.0%
Combined odds
1.95
Fair odds
1.89
Edge
+3.3%
Expected value: +$0.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.0% · fair market: 49.6% · edge: +6.8%
Model probabilities Arthur Fery 47.0% · James Duckworth 53.0% Why James Duckworth is favoured Arthur Fery's Elo (1513) is +72 over James Duckworth (1442); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 68.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.0% vs market 49.6% (edge +6.8%, suggested Kelly +3.5% of bankroll).