Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elsa Jacquemot
To win
+$38.00
Total payout
$58.00
Joint prob
59.4%
Combined odds
2.90
Fair odds
1.68
Edge
+72.3%
Expected value: +$14.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$14.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.4% · fair market: 33.0% · edge: +79.9%
Model probabilities Rebecca Sramkova 40.6% · Elsa Jacquemot 59.4% Why Elsa Jacquemot is favoured Rebecca Sramkova's Elo (1482) is +19 over Elsa Jacquemot (1464); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 55.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.4% vs market 33.0% (edge +79.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).