Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fery
To win
+$68.00
Total payout
$88.00
Joint prob
23.5%
Combined odds
4.40
Fair odds
4.26
Edge
+3.3%
Expected value: +$0.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 23.5% · fair market: 22.3% · edge: +5.4%
Model probabilities Arthur Fery 23.5% · Alex de Minaur 76.5% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1762) is +236 over Arthur Fery (1526); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 13.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 23.5% vs market 22.3% (edge +5.4%, suggested Kelly +1.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.