Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 23.3% · fair market: 23.6% · edge: -1.3%
Model probabilities Rei Sakamoto 23.3% · Frances Tiafoe 76.7% Calibration Raw model: 13.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.