Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Carlos Taberner
To win
+$232.80
Total payout
$252.80
Joint prob
41.2%
Combined odds
12.64
Fair odds
2.43
Edge
+420.9%
Expected value: +$84.19 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$84.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 41.2% · fair market: 7.7% · edge: +437.3%
Model probabilities Zizou Bergs 58.8% · Carlos Taberner 41.2% Why Zizou Bergs is favoured Zizou Bergs's Elo (1581) is +119 over Carlos Taberner (1462); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 58.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 41.2% vs market 7.7% (edge +437.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.