Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tamara Korpatsch
To win
+$43.00
Total payout
$63.00
Joint prob
53.4%
Combined odds
3.15
Fair odds
1.87
Edge
+68.2%
Expected value: +$13.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.4% · fair market: 30.8% · edge: +73.6%
Model probabilities Maya Joint 46.6% · Tamara Korpatsch 53.4% Why Tamara Korpatsch is favoured Maya Joint's Elo (1567) is +68 over Tamara Korpatsch (1499); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 68.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.4% vs market 30.8% (edge +73.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.