Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sebastian Baez
To win
+$86.40
Total payout
$106.40
Joint prob
26.0%
Combined odds
5.32
Fair odds
3.85
Edge
+38.1%
Expected value: +$7.62 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.62 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 26.0% · fair market: 17.9% · edge: +45.0%
Model probabilities Sebastian Baez 26.0% · Tomas Machac 74.0% Why Tomas Machac is favoured Tomas Machac's Elo (1637) is +140 over Sebastian Baez (1498); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 21.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 26.0% vs market 17.9% (edge +45.0%, suggested Kelly +8.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.