Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Karolina Muchova
To win
+$14.40
Total payout
$34.40
Joint prob
71.5%
Combined odds
1.72
Fair odds
1.40
Edge
+23.0%
Expected value: +$4.61 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.61 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.5% · fair market: 56.5% · edge: +26.7%
Model probabilities Karolina Muchova 71.5% · Naomi Osaka 28.5% Why Karolina Muchova is favoured Karolina Muchova's Elo (1893) is +118 over Naomi Osaka (1775); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 71.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 71.5% vs market 56.5% (edge +26.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.