Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tommy Paul
To win
+$42.40
Total payout
$62.40
Joint prob
38.9%
Combined odds
3.12
Fair odds
2.57
Edge
+21.4%
Expected value: +$4.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.9% · fair market: 31.1% · edge: +25.0%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 61.1% · Tommy Paul 38.9% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1883) is +147 over Tommy Paul (1736); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 61.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 38.9% vs market 31.1% (edge +25.0%, suggested Kelly +10.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.