Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jiri Lehecka
To win
+$11.60
Total payout
$31.60
Joint prob
64.1%
Combined odds
1.58
Fair odds
1.56
Edge
+1.2%
Expected value: +$0.25 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.25 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.1% · fair market: 61.7% · edge: +3.8%
Model probabilities Ugo Humbert 35.9% · Jiri Lehecka 64.1% Why Jiri Lehecka is favoured Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1723) is +52 over Ugo Humbert (1671); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 64.1% vs market 61.7% (edge +3.8%, suggested Kelly +2.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.