Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Belinda Bencic
To win
+$16.20
Total payout
$36.20
Joint prob
74.7%
Combined odds
1.81
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
+35.1%
Expected value: +$7.02 on a $20 stake.
Alexandra Eala experienced an ankle injury scare during her last match at the Canadian Open on August 8, 2026, though she downplayed its severity, stating it was "no serious problem" and attributed some discomfort to fatigue from recent tournaments. Belinda Bencic, in her most recent match on August 8, 2026, had an on-court outburst directed at her coaching team and played a physically demanding, lengthy three-set match.
Belinda Bencic lashed out at her coaching team, including her husband, during her third-round match at the Canadian Open, telling them to "man up and be loud" and "shut up" despite winning the set.
Expected value: +$7.02 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.7% · fair market: 53.9% · edge: +38.4%
Model probabilities Alexandra Eala 25.3% · Belinda Bencic 74.7% Why Belinda Bencic is favoured Belinda Bencic's Elo (1799) is +107 over Alexandra Eala (1692); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 74.7% vs market 53.9% (edge +38.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.