Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Veronika Erjavec
To win
+$41.00
Total payout
$61.00
Joint prob
52.0%
Combined odds
3.05
Fair odds
1.92
Edge
+58.6%
Expected value: +$11.72 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.72 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.0% · fair market: 31.5% · edge: +65.3%
Model probabilities Mary Stoiana 48.0% · Veronika Erjavec 52.0% Calibration Raw model: 70.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 52.0% vs market 31.5% (edge +65.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).